The picture for how enterprise IM will look in five years' time is unclear.
It could clearly be dominated by Microsoft's IM offering, and that of Lotus, with perhaps one other player.
On the other hand:
- Microsoft's had great difficulty getting a usable IM system out to its customers and that situation might continue
- Telephony players are discovering the key role of presence. As new VoIP solutions are deployed, presence might bring other IM players to the fore